Hindsight Bias
Definition
The tendency to view a past outcome as having been more predictable than it was, because the outcome is now known. In failure analysis it can inflate assessments of past negligence.
- Definition domain
- Cognitive bias, judgment and decision-making
- Effect
- Past outcome seems more predictable than it actually was
- Risk context
- Failure and root-cause analysis
- Consequence
- Can inflate assessments of prior negligence
Common questions
How does hindsight bias distort an engineering failure investigation?+
Once the failure's outcome is known, warning signs that were genuinely ambiguous at the time can look like obvious red flags in retrospect, leading an investigator to judge the original decision-makers more harshly than the information actually available to them at the time would support.
How do investigators try to control for hindsight bias in a review?+
A common safeguard is to reconstruct and evaluate the decision using only the information, standards, and context that existed at the time of the original decision, deliberately excluding knowledge of the eventual outcome, so the judgment reflects foreseeability rather than what is now obvious.
Related terms
- ASCE Code of Ethics
- The code of the American Society of Civil Engineers, structured around four fundamental principles (justice, sustainability, competence, and public safety) and supporting...
- Confirmation Bias
- The cognitive tendency to search for, interpret, favour, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or...
- NSPE Code of Ethics
- The ethical code of the National Society of Professional Engineers (US), built around six fundamental canons, the first of which requires engineers...
- Professional Registration
- A state-issued licence or registration that permits an engineer to offer engineering services to the public. In the US this is the...
- Whistleblower Obligation
- The duty, found in the NSPE and ASCE codes and some statutory provisions, to inform appropriate parties when an engineer becomes aware...