Pathway-to-Violence Model
Definition
A five-stage sequential model (grievance, ideation, research and planning, probing and preparation, attack) developed by Calhoun and Weston and elaborated by the FBI BTAC; provides the theoretical map for threat assessment intervention timing.
- Stages
- 5: grievance, ideation, research/planning, probing/preparation, attack
- Originators
- Calhoun and Weston
- Elaborated by
- FBI Behavioral Threat Assessment Center (BTAC)
- Used for
- Timing threat-assessment intervention points
Common questions
Where does intervention work best on the pathway?+
Earlier stages, especially research and planning, give the widest window for intervention because the subject has not yet committed to a specific method or target. By the probing and preparation stage options narrow sharply, and by attack there is none.
Does everyone with a grievance move through all five stages?+
No. Most people with a grievance never progress to ideation or planning, and progression is not strictly linear. The model is a map of a rare trajectory, not a prediction that any given grievance will advance.
Related terms
- BNS 2023 § 113
- The Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita 2023 terrorist act provision (replacing UAPA § 15 as the primary substantive offence for many terrorism prosecutions); does...
- BTAC (Behavioral Threat Assessment Center)
- The FBI unit that provides training, research, and case consultation on targeted violence threat assessment; operational successor to the Behavioral Threat Assessment...
- Channel Programme
- The UK's statutory civil intervention pathway for individuals assessed as vulnerable to radicalisation; operated through multi-agency Channel panels, placed on statutory footing...
- ERPO (Extreme Risk Protection Order)
- A US civil-law mechanism (enacted in 21 states as of 2025) allowing courts to temporarily remove firearms from persons assessed as an...
- Leakage
- Intentional or unintentional communication of intent to commit violence to a third party. One of TRAP-18's eight proximal warning behaviours and the...
- TRAP-18 (Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol)
- An 18-indicator threat assessment framework developed by Meloy and colleagues, comprising 8 proximal warning behaviours (pathway, fixation, identification, novel aggression, energy burst,...
- WAVR-21
- Workplace Assessment of Violence Risk, 21-factor version. A structured threat-assessment tool used in occupational and institutional settings that integrates language analysis with...