Multiple comparisons problem
Definition
The inflation of the probability of at least one false-positive result that occurs when many statistical tests or pairwise comparisons are made. In forensic database searches, the probability of a coincidental match across N comparisons is much higher than the single-pair match probability.
Related terms
- Base rate
- The prior probability of an event or proposition before specific evidence is considered. In forensic inference, the base rate is the probability...
- Bonferroni correction
- A standard adjustment for multiple comparisons: the significance threshold for any individual test is divided by the total number of tests performed,...
- Database match probability
- The adjusted probability that a coincidental match to a crime-scene profile exists somewhere in a database, accounting for the number of profiles...
- Ecological fallacy
- The error of applying a statistical association observed at the population or group level to an individual, without verifying that the individual...
- Look-elsewhere effect
- The inflated apparent significance of a finding that arises when many features, tests, or subsets are examined and only the significant result...
Explained in
- Other Statistical Fallacies in Forensic ContextsThe inflation of the probability of at least one false-positive result that occurs when many statistical tests or pairwise comparisons are made. In forensic da...