Look-elsewhere effect
Definition
The inflated apparent significance of a finding that arises when many features, tests, or subsets are examined and only the significant result is reported, without disclosing the total number of things tested. Also called the multiple testing problem in exploratory analysis.
Related terms
- Base rate
- The prior probability of an event or proposition before specific evidence is considered. In forensic inference, the base rate is the probability...
- Bonferroni correction
- A standard adjustment for multiple comparisons: the significance threshold for any individual test is divided by the total number of tests performed,...
- Database match probability
- The adjusted probability that a coincidental match to a crime-scene profile exists somewhere in a database, accounting for the number of profiles...
- Ecological fallacy
- The error of applying a statistical association observed at the population or group level to an individual, without verifying that the individual...
- Multiple comparisons problem
- The inflation of the probability of at least one false-positive result that occurs when many statistical tests or pairwise comparisons are made....
Explained in
- Other Statistical Fallacies in Forensic ContextsThe inflated apparent significance of a finding that arises when many features, tests, or subsets are examined and only the significant result is reported, wit...