Ecological Fallacy
Definition
The error of applying a statistical association observed at the population or group level to an individual, without verifying that the individual belongs to the population from which the group statistic was derived.
- Type of error
- Group-level statistic misapplied to an individual
- Domain
- Statistical fallacy
- Missing check
- Individual's membership in the source population
Common questions
How does an ecological fallacy arise in forensic interpretation?+
It arises when a rate or association found in a population study, for example a group-level correlation between a trait and an outcome, is presented as if it directly predicts the behaviour or characteristics of one specific individual under investigation, without confirming the individual is representative of that population.
How is the ecological fallacy avoided when presenting population statistics in court?+
By explicitly stating the population the statistic was drawn from, verifying the individual case falls within that population, and framing the figure as informative rather than determinative for that one person.
Related terms
- Base Rate
- The prior probability of an event or proposition before specific evidence is considered. In forensic inference, the base rate is the probability...
- Bonferroni Correction
- A standard adjustment for multiple comparisons: the significance threshold for any individual test is divided by the total number of tests performed,...
- Crime Rate
- The number of recorded offences of a given type divided by the population at risk, usually per 100,000 people, which allows comparison...
- Database Match Probability
- The adjusted probability that a coincidental match to a crime-scene profile exists somewhere in a database, accounting for the number of profiles...
- Interrupted Time-Series Design
- A design that compares the trend in a crime series before and after an identified intervention date, testing for a change in...
- Look-Elsewhere Effect
- The inflated apparent significance of a finding that arises when many features, tests, or subsets are examined and only the significant result...
- Multiple Comparisons Problem
- The inflation of the probability of at least one false-positive result that occurs when many statistical tests or pairwise comparisons are made....
- Negative Binomial Regression
- A count regression model that adds a dispersion parameter to absorb overdispersion, the pattern where a crime count's variance exceeds its mean,...
- Poisson Regression
- A regression model for count outcomes, such as burglaries per ward per month, that assumes the variance of the counts equals their...
- Trend Index
- A rate rebased to 100 in a chosen base year so that later years can be read directly as a percentage change...
Explained in these topics
- Other Statistical Fallacies in Forensic Contexts
- Statistical Methods in Crime ResearchThe error of assuming a correlation observed between variables measured at the group level, such as neighbourhoods, also holds for individuals within those gro...