Hypothesis
Definition
A proposed explanation for observed evidence. In reconstruction, competing hypotheses are evaluated against the physical facts and background knowledge. A good hypothesis is specific enough to be testable and falsifiable.
- Role
- Proposed explanation for observed evidence
- Key requirement
- Specific enough to be testable and falsifiable
- Evaluated against
- Physical facts and background knowledge
- Field
- Reconstruction and probabilistic reasoning
Common questions
What makes a reconstruction hypothesis usable in court rather than just speculation?+
It must generate predictions that the physical evidence can either support or contradict; a hypothesis vague enough to fit any outcome cannot be tested and offers no probative value, however plausible it sounds.
How do investigators choose between competing hypotheses that both fit the evidence?+
They weigh each against additional physical details, background statistics, and internal consistency, often using a likelihood-ratio framework that compares how probable the observed evidence is under each hypothesis rather than treating either as automatically true.
Related terms
- Activity-Level Interpretation
- An opinion about what activity produced or deposited the evidence, rather than simply what the source of the evidence is. Activity-level conclusions...
- Bayesian Reasoning
- A framework for updating beliefs in the light of evidence. Prior probabilities are combined with the likelihood of the evidence to produce...
- Dissemination
- The stage at which findings are written up, peer reviewed, published and communicated to academic, policy and practitioner audiences so the study...
- Hierarchy of Propositions
- A framework that classifies forensic questions at source level (where did this come from?), activity level (what was the person doing?), and...
- Likelihood Ratio (LR)
- The ratio of two conditional probabilities: the probability of the observed evidence given the prosecution's hypothesis (same source), divided by the probability...
- Operationalisation
- The process of turning an abstract concept, such as fear of crime or recidivism, into a measurable variable with a stated procedure...
- Pilot Study
- A small-scale trial run of the data collection instrument and procedure, carried out before the full study, to catch unclear questions, timing...
- Reconstruction
- The stage at which all analytical findings are assembled into a coherent account of how an event unfolded. Reconstruction draws on scene...
- Research Design
- The overall plan for answering the research question, such as a cross-sectional survey, a longitudinal cohort study, or a case study, chosen...
- Research Problem
- A specific, answerable question that narrows a broad area of interest into something a study can actually investigate with available data and...
Explained in these topics
- Reconstruction and Probabilistic Reasoning
- Main Steps in the Criminological Research ProcessA testable statement predicting a relationship between two or more variables, framed so that evidence can support or refute it.