Bayesian Reasoning
Definition
A framework for updating beliefs in the light of evidence. Prior probabilities are combined with the likelihood of the evidence to produce posterior probabilities. Forensic scientists use Bayesian logic to quantify how much evidence changes the probability of a conclusion.
Related terms
- Activity-Level Interpretation
- An opinion about what activity produced or deposited the evidence, rather than simply what the source of the evidence is. Activity-level conclusions...
- Hierarchy of Propositions
- A framework that classifies forensic questions at source level (where did this come from?), activity level (what was the person doing?), and...
- Hypothesis
- A proposed explanation for observed evidence. In reconstruction, competing hypotheses are evaluated against the physical facts and background knowledge. A good hypothesis...
- Likelihood Ratio (LR)
- The ratio of two conditional probabilities: the probability of the observed evidence given the prosecution's hypothesis (same source), divided by the probability...
- Reconstruction
- The stage at which all analytical findings are assembled into a coherent account of how an event unfolded. Reconstruction draws on scene...
Explained in
- Reconstruction and Probabilistic ReasoningA framework for updating beliefs in the light of evidence. Prior probabilities are combined with the likelihood of the evidence to produce posterior probabilit...