Transposed Conditional
Definition
The error of confusing the probability of findings under a proposition with that proposition’s probability given the findings. The latter also depends on the wider inferential framework. A small chance of a result under one alternative does not automatically establish guilt, identity or another preferred explanation.
- Context
- Evidence reasoning
For example, a small probability of findings under one proposition does not automatically equal a small probability that the proposition itself is true.
Keep likelihoods and proposition probabilities distinct.
Related terms
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- Sub-Source Proposition
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