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Poisson Regression

Definition

A regression model for count outcomes, such as burglaries per ward per month, that assumes the variance of the counts equals their mean and uses an offset term to convert predictions into a rate per unit of exposure.

Related terms

Crime Rate
The number of recorded offences of a given type divided by the population at risk, usually per 100,000 people, which allows comparison...
Ecological Fallacy
The error of applying a statistical association observed at the population or group level to an individual, without verifying that the individual...
Chi-Square Test
A goodness-of-fit test comparing the observed digit frequencies in a dataset to the expected Benford frequencies, producing a test statistic that is...
Cross-Tabulation
A table showing how two categorical variables, such as offence type and area type, are jointly distributed, used as the basis for...
Interrupted Time-Series Design
A design that compares the trend in a crime series before and after an identified intervention date, testing for a change in...
Logistic Regression
A regression method used when the outcome is binary, such as reconvicted or not, with coefficients read as odds ratios.
Meta-Analysis
A method that combines the results of many separate studies of the same question into a single, more precise estimate.
Negative Binomial Regression
A count regression model that adds a dispersion parameter to absorb overdispersion, the pattern where a crime count's variance exceeds its mean,...
Time-Series Analysis
Study of a sequence of measurements of the same variable taken at regular intervals, used to detect trend, seasonality and intervention effects.
Trend Index
A rate rebased to 100 in a chosen base year so that later years can be read directly as a percentage change...

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