Error Rate
Definition
One of the Daubert factors: the known or potential rate at which a method produces false positives or false negatives, and whether the standards controlling the technique's operation are defined. For forensic methods, error rate is often cited as the least satisfied factor.
- Origin
- One of the Daubert factors
- Measures
- Known or potential rate of false positives and false negatives
- Related requirement
- Defined standards controlling the technique's operation
- Status in forensics
- Often the least satisfied Daubert factor
Common questions
Why do forensic disciplines struggle to satisfy the error rate factor?+
Many pattern-comparison methods, such as toolmark or bite mark analysis, were developed through casework rather than controlled validation studies, so no reliable population-level false positive or false negative rate has been established for them.
Does a low published error rate guarantee a technique is admissible?+
No. Courts weigh error rate alongside the other Daubert factors, and a low error rate reported under ideal laboratory conditions does not automatically transfer to how the method performs on degraded real-world casework samples.
Related terms
- Abuse of Discretion
- The standard of appellate review established by Joiner for Daubert rulings. An appellate court will reverse a trial judge's gatekeeping decision only...
- Base-Rate Fallacy
- Ignoring the background frequency (base rate) of a characteristic when interpreting a match. A test specific to 1 in 10,000 people still...
- Daubert Gatekeeping
- The judicial function under Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals (1993) and Federal Rules of Evidence Rule 702, requiring the trial judge to...
- Daubert Trilogy
- The three US Supreme Court decisions that together define the federal standard for expert testimony admissibility: Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals (1993),...
- Federal Rule of Evidence 702
- The US federal rule governing expert testimony. As amended through 2023, it requires that expert opinion be based on sufficient facts or...
- Frye Standard
- The US legal test for admissibility of scientific evidence, originating from Frye v. United States (1923), which required that a technique be...
- Likelihood Ratio (LR)
- The ratio of two conditional probabilities: the probability of the observed evidence given the prosecution's hypothesis (same source), divided by the probability...
- Measurement Uncertainty
- A quantitative statement of the range within which the true value of a measurement lies, at a stated confidence level (typically 95%,...
- Probabilistic Reporting
- The practice of stating a dental age estimate as a range with an associated probability (e.g. a 95% confidence interval) rather than...
- Prosecutor's Fallacy
- The error of treating the RMP (or its reciprocal) as the probability that the defendant is innocent, or as the probability that...
Explained in these topics
- Error, Uncertainty and the Statistics of Forensic ScienceThe frequency with which a test or method produces an incorrect result under defined conditions. Includes both false positives (spurious matches) and false neg...
- The Daubert Standard and Its Progeny