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Probability of Paternity (W)

Definition

The posterior probability that the alleged father is the biological father, calculated from the CPI and a prior probability using Bayes' theorem. Most laboratories used a neutral prior of 0.5. Expressed as a percentage in most court reports.

Related terms

Combined Paternity Index (CPI)
The product of all individual paternity indices across all marker systems tested. Assumes independence of the marker systems. The CPI is a...
Paternity Index (PI)
A likelihood ratio that compares the probability of the observed serological profile if the alleged father is the biological father to the...
Deficient Paternity Test
Paternity inferred from the alleged father's relatives (grandparents, siblings) when the alleged father himself is unavailable or deceased.
Essen-Moller W
The formula for probability of paternity derived by Erik Essen-Moller in 1938 and widely adopted by forensic laboratories. W = CPI /...
Exclusion
The categorical conclusion that one or more examined features are clearly inconsistent in a way that cannot be explained by projection angle,...
Exclusion Probability (W)
The proportion of the male reference population that would be excluded as the biological father by the marker panel tested. A high...
Inclusion
All obligate alleles are accounted for. Inclusion is probabilistic, never absolute, and is reported as a CPI plus probability of paternity.
Motherless Paternity Test
Paternity analysis where the mother's sample is unavailable. CPI thresholds are raised because the obligate paternal allele cannot be inferred from the...
Mutation Rate
STR loci mutate at roughly 0.001 to 0.005 per generation. A single one-step mismatch is typically scored as a possible mutation, not...
Obligate Paternal Allele
The allele in the child's genotype that did not come from the mother and therefore must have come from the biological father.
Obligatory Paternal Allele
The allele a child must have received from the biological father, identified by subtracting the mother's alleles from the child's genotype. The...
Presumption of Legitimacy
Statutory presumption that a child born during the continuance of a valid marriage is the legitimate child of the husband. Rebuttable only...

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