Prediction Interval
Definition
A prediction interval is a range constructed under a statistical model for a defined future or unobserved outcome. Its target differs from an interval for a model parameter, and its interpretation depends on the model, assumptions and demonstrated coverage.
- Context
- Statistical prediction
For example, predicting an individual developmental outcome involves a different target from estimating a mean parameter from the same reference experiment.
A broad collection of assumed scenarios is not automatically a calibrated prediction interval.
Related terms
- Carrion Community
- Organisms associated with carrion, including different ecological roles. A resource can support feeders, predators, parasites and incidental organisms together. Their roles and...
- Dermestidae (Hide Beetles)
- A beetle family including carrion-associated species; ecological roles and timing vary. Dermestids include species associated with animal material and stored products. Some...
- Detection Probability
- The chance of observing a target under a specified sampling and occurrence situation. Whether a target is recorded depends on its presence...
- Faunal Succession
- Change in the taxa associated with a resource under defined conditions. Temperature, habitat, access, moisture and interactions influence the pattern observed in...
- Indicator Species
- A taxon whose occurrence can inform a question when the association and reference evidence are appropriate. The utility depends on identification, environment,...
- Indicator Taxon
- A taxon with demonstrated utility for a particular inference, not an automatic temporal bound. A taxon can inform a question when an...
- Occurrence Model
- A method relating defined organism observations to conditions or time under stated assumptions. Its meaning depends on the target taxon, sampling method...
- Reference Residency Span
- The recorded interval of occurrence in a particular reference design. Locality, season, resource and sampling are part of that reference. Its endpoints...
- Reference Succession Series
- Documented community observations used for comparison, requiring appropriate sampling and environmental applicability. A residency span records occurrence under a particular study and...
- Silphidae (Burying Beetles and Allies)
- Carrion beetles historically grouped as Silphidae, with modern classification sometimes placing them in Staphylinidae as Silphinae. Explain the taxonomic convention used by...
Explained in
- The Successional Method of PMI EstimationAn interval constructed under a statistical model for a defined predictive target.