Geographic Profiling
Definition
A spatial analysis technique originally developed by Kim Rossmo that predicts the likely home or anchor point of a serial offender from the spatial distribution of confirmed crime scenes; widely applied to serial arson series.
- Developed by
- Kim Rossmo
- Core output
- Jeopardy surface (probability map of offender's likely home or anchor point)
- Primary application
- Serial crimes (especially arson, but applicable to any serial offender)
Common questions
What does geographic profiling actually do?+
It takes the locations of linked crime scenes and creates a probability map (called a jeopardy surface) that shows where the offender's home base or anchor point is most likely to be. The higher the probability in an area, the more likely the offender lives or operates from there.
How does it help investigators catch criminals?+
Instead of searching blindly across a city, investigators can focus resources on neighborhoods where the probability surface shows the offender is most likely to live. This is especially useful for serial offenders, where multiple crime scenes reveal a spatial pattern that a home location can explain.
Is this method used for all crimes, or just some types?+
While the technique was pioneered for serial crimes in general, it's particularly valuable for serial arson cases. Any serial crime where you have multiple confirmed sites can potentially be analyzed this way, as long as the crime locations reveal a spatial pattern tied to the offender's anchor point.
Related terms
- Arson Motive Classification
- The systematic categorisation of the reasons an arsonist sets a fire, most commonly using the FBI Crime Classification Manual six-category framework: vandalism,...
- Buffer Zone
- The area immediately around an offender's anchor point where offence probability is suppressed because the offender avoids committing crimes near recognisable locations...
- Children's Firesetting Interview (CFI)
- A structured clinician-administered assessment instrument developed by David Kolko at the University of Pittsburgh to evaluate fire history, fire knowledge, curiosity about...
- Circle Hypothesis
- David Canter and Paul Larkin's 1993 hypothesis that for marauder offenders, the anchor point falls within the circle defined by the two...
- Commuter
- An offender who travels from their anchor point into a geographically separate crime area to offend; the circle hypothesis does not reliably...
- Criminal Geographic Targeting (CGT)
- Kim Rossmo's algorithm for geographic profiling, incorporating a distance-decay function modified by a buffer-zone suppression factor; implemented commercially in the Rigel software.
- Distance Decay
- The empirical observation that the probability of an offence location decreases as distance from the offender's anchor point increases, reflecting the rising...
- ENFSI Best Practice Manual
- The European Network of Forensic Science Institutes Fire and Explosions Investigation Working Group guidance document for fire and explosion investigation across European...
- FBI Crime Classification Manual (CCM)
- A reference manual published by the FBI Behavioral Science Unit classifying crimes including arson by motive and offender behaviour pattern; the standard...
- Firesetting Risk Interview (FRI)
- A companion parent-report instrument developed alongside the Kolko CFI that provides a structured parental account of the child's fire-setting behaviour, enabling cross-validation...
- Hero Arsonist
- An excitement-motivated arsonist who is also a first responder (firefighter, emergency medical technician) who sets fires to create opportunities to demonstrate competence...
- Jeopardy Surface
- The probability map output of geographic profiling, rendered as a colour-coded topographic display where high-probability zones for the anchor point appear in...
Explained in these topics
- Arson Motives, Offender Profiles and Serial Arsonist TypologiesA spatial analysis technique originally developed by Kim Rossmo that predicts the likely home or anchor point of a serial offender from the spatial distributio...
- Geographic Profiling: Rossmo, Canter and the Jeopardy SurfaceThe analytical technique that uses the geographic locations of linked crime sites to generate a probability surface (jeopardy surface) showing where an unknown...