Confidence Interval
Definition
A range that captures the estimate's uncertainty. In entomological testimony, the PMI should be presented as a range derived from the propagation of uncertainty in the temperature record and the development dataset, not as a point figure.
- Applies to
- Postmortem interval (PMI) estimates in entomology
- Format
- Range, not a single point figure
- Uncertainty sources
- Temperature record and development dataset
- Testimony use
- Presented as a bounded range, e.g. 48 to 72 hours
Common questions
Why do entomologists avoid giving a single PMI figure in court?+
A single number implies a precision the underlying data cannot support. Temperature records and development-rate datasets both carry measurement error, so a range communicates the true uncertainty and is harder to overstate or misuse under cross-examination.
What narrows a PMI confidence interval?+
Denser, more local weather-station data, a development dataset matched closely to the species and rearing temperature used, and multiple insect stages or species sampled at the scene all reduce the width of the reported range.
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