Probability Mapping
Definition
A spatial analysis technique that assigns relative likelihood scores to grid cells or terrain zones based on accessibility, soil type, offender behaviour data, and environmental factors, guiding field priorities.
- Application
- Search and rescue, missing person cases
- Inputs
- Terrain, accessibility, soil type, behaviour data
- Output
- Grid or zone likelihood scores
- Purpose
- Prioritise field search resources
Common questions
How does probability mapping differ from a simple concentric search radius?+
A radius search treats all directions from the last known point as equally likely, while probability mapping weights terrain accessibility, historical behaviour patterns, and environmental barriers, so search teams commit limited resources to the zones statistically most likely to contain the person or evidence first.
Can probability mapping be updated during an active search?+
Yes, as searched zones return negative results or new information such as a witness sighting or a discovered item arrives, the probability surface is recalculated, shifting priority to the remaining unsearched high-likelihood zones rather than continuing a static plan.
Related terms
- Desk-Based Assessment
- The pre-fieldwork intelligence phase in which investigators review maps, aerial images, witness accounts, and land records to define a search area and...
- Hypothesis-Led Search
- A search approach that targets specific locations predicted by intelligence or terrain analysis, testing those predictions before expanding to lower-probability areas.
- POLSA
- Police Search Advisor: a specialist role in England and Wales responsible for planning and commanding a search operation, selecting methods, and maintaining...
- Systematic-Grid Search
- An approach that divides the search area into a uniform grid and covers each cell at equal density, used when the deposit...
- Tasking Log
- The written record of every instruction, decision, and team action during a search operation. It is a contemporaneous document admissible as evidence...