Validation study
Definition
An empirical study that tests the accuracy, precision, and error rate of a forensic method under realistic conditions. Validation data are required to support the reliability of any probabilistic statement made using that method in court.
Related terms
- Bayes' theorem
- The mathematical rule that relates prior odds, the likelihood ratio, and posterior odds. In the odds form: O(Hp|E) = O(Hp) x LR....
- Evaluative reporting
- A framework for expressing forensic conclusions in terms of the probability of the evidence given the prosecution hypothesis versus the defence hypothesis...
- Likelihood ratio (LR)
- The ratio of two conditional probabilities: the probability of the observed evidence given the prosecution's hypothesis (same source), divided by the probability...
- Prosecutor's fallacy
- The error of treating the RMP (or its reciprocal) as the probability that the defendant is innocent, or as the probability that...
- Random match probability (RMP)
- The probability that a randomly chosen unrelated person from the relevant population would match the evidence profile by chance. A very small...
Explained in
- The Role of Statistics in Evidence EvaluationAn empirical study that tests the accuracy, precision, and error rate of a forensic method under realistic conditions. Validation data are required to support...